Things quickly went south with last week’s top three picks to turn a winning record on the year into a losing one at 5-7, but I remain confident that I can get back on track with this Sunday’s top three plays. I have once again broken down all the matchups on this Sunday’s NFL slate to come up with my top picks for Week 5 of the NFL season using betting odds from BetOnline.
Sunday, Oct. 11
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
The 2-2 Bills come into this matchup with 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven road games and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Buffalo does now how to put points on the board with an average of 27.5 a game. Tennessee is coming off an early bye week following a 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) and going back over its last 15 games at home it is just 2-12-1 ATS at home.
The Titans have also done a good job putting points on the board, but the concern in this matchup is a defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL in points allowed. Stick with the Bills to cover in this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Both of these teams are off to predictable 1-3 SU starts, but I think the upside for the Jaguars right now is a bit higher. Blake Bortles continues to progress at quarterback and Jacksonville’s running game has gotten a boost from rookie TJ Yeldon. Jameis Winston has taken over the reins as Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback, but this rookie has proven to be a work in progress through his first four NFL starts with six touchdown throws against seven interceptions.
The Jaguars have covered ATS in five of their last seven games, while Tampa Bay is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games. I am taking Jacksonville and the points in a very tight matchup.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Denver is off to a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) behind the strength of its defense, while the Raiders have battled their way to a 2-2 start both SU and ATS with second-year vet Derek Carr throwing the ball to rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper. This exciting duo has breathed some new life into a franchise that has been starved for a winner for quite a long time now.
The Broncos have dominated this AFC West matchup for the past several seasons, but I am going way out on a limb this week by taking Oakland as my “upset special” with a stunning SU win against their division rivals.
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