The first six weeks of the 2015 NFL regular season are in the books and after stumbling a bit with my top picks for Football.US over the past two weeks, I fully expect to get back on track in Week 7 after digging deep into all of Sunday’s matchups. The following are my top three NFL picks based on betting odds from BetOnline.
Sunday, Oct. 25
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (UNDER 44.5)
The 3-2 Vikings have been top money makers this season with a 4-1 record against the spread and solid return on the total line with four of five games staying UNDER. I really like the trend on the total line to hold up behind an offense that is only managing 19.2 points a game coupled with a defense that is holding teams to just 16.6 points.
The Lions finally got off the schneid last week following a five-game losing streak to start the season. Even though they managed to put 37 points on the board in that overtime win against Chicago, this offense has also struggled to put points on the board all season long with an average of just 20 a game. Heading into this NFC North showdown, the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings in Detroit and it is staying UNDER again this Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Washington Redskins
Tampa Bay is hardly a threat to catch the front-runners in the NFC South at 2-3 on the year, but coming off a bye, its prospect to even its record with a win this Sunday looks pretty good. If rookie quarterback Jameis Winston can manage the game and avoid any costly turnovers, the Buccaneers should be able to run the ball up and down the field with Doug Martin carrying the load.
The one concern for 2-4 Washington in this game is a run defense that is ranked 23rd in the league in yards allowed. The bigger concern could be an offense that is now ranked 17th in rushing yards per game after getting completely ground to a halt in its last few outings. It will be hard to turn to quarterback Kirk Cousins and a passing offense that is 23rd in yards per game (230.7) to try and fill the void on an offense that is averaging 19.5 points a game. It probably will not be pretty, but I am taking the Bucs and the 3.5 points in this one.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Atlanta’s five-game winning streak to start the season came to an end with last Thursday’s 31-21 loss to rival New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite, but it should be a whole other story this Sunday on the road as once again a 3.5-point favorite. The Falcons’ offense has almost been unstoppable behind Julio Jones catching the ball and Devonta Freeman running it.
Tennessee has lost four-straight following an opening day win against Tampa Bay and things appear to be getting worse with each and every setback. Last Sunday, the Titans got pushed around in a 38-10 loss to Miami as 2.5-point favorites at home and they may have to turn to Zach Mettenberger to try and end the skid if rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota cannot go. To me it does not really matter who is under center for Tennessee since it will be next to impossible for this offense to keep pace on the scoreboard with Atlanta in this matchup.
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