The 2015 NFL regular season heads into Week 8 and the betting trends through the first seven weeks have favored both the underdogs against the spread and the OVER on the total line. I am going to ride both of these trends in this Sunday’s NFL games with my top three picks for Football.US based on betting odds from BetOnline.
Sunday, Nov. 1
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (OVER 49)
The New York Giants are just 4-3 both straight-up and ATS, but that is good enough to hold down first place in the watered-down NFC East. They have already made their fair share of mistakes with two blown fourth quarter leads, but they have also been very opportunistic with a turnover ratio of plus nine. When things are clicking this can still be one of the most explosive offenses in the league.
New Orleans is pointed in the right direction following a very shaky 0-3 start with wins in three of its last four games both SU and ATS. This is another team that can put quite a few points on the board when it is on its game and in those three wins the Saints have averaged 28 points. I am looking for both Eli Manning for the Giants and the Saints’ Drew Brees to have a big day through the air to take this game OVER the total line.
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at St. Louis Rams
San Francisco is a bad team as displayed by its 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) start. It is struggling on offense with just 295.6 total yards and 14.7 points a game, which are both ranked dead last in the NFL and its defense is ranked 31st in yards allowed. That being said, I am not sure the 49ers are bad enough to be getting this many points against a team they have beaten SU in 13 of the last 14 meetings.
The Rams come into this NFC West matchup at 3-3 both SU and ATS and while they have beaten Seattle and Arizona SU after closing as underdogs, I am not all that comfortable in their role as heavy home favorites. This offense is ranked 31st in the NFL in both yards and points per game so I am not sure there is a very big gap between both teams. St. Louis definitely has the edge when it comes to the defensive side of the ball, but things should still remain closer that the current spread in what should be a very low scoring game.
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+3)
In the battle of unbeatens on Sunday night, Green Bay comes into to Mile High well rested at 6-0 SU with a profitable 5-1 record ATS. The Packers are one of the most complete teams in the NFL with an offense that is putting-up 27.3 points a game complementing a defense that is ranked first in points allowed (16.8). Green Bay is 2-0 SU against the AFC West this season, but it failed to cover its last time out in a 27-20 win against San Diego as 10-point home favorites.
Denver is also coming off a bye at 6-0 SU with a 4-1-1 record ATS. Neither of these NFL powers has faced all that many teams with a SU winning record so this will be the first true test for both. Peyton Manning has been showing his age a bit in a slower start than expected, but he is still Peyton Manning. The Broncos’ defense is ranked third in the league in points allowed (17) and it is ranked first against the pass, which helps negate Green Bay’s biggest strength. It all comes down to home field and I am always going to take Denver getting points in its own backyard.
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