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The 2015 NFL regular season heads into Week 8 and the betting trends through the first seven weeks have favored both the underdogs against the spread and the OVER on the total line. I am going to ride both of these trends in this Sunday’s NFL games with my top three picks for Football.US based on betting odds from BetOnline.

Sunday, Nov. 1

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (OVER 49)

The New York Giants are just 4-3 both straight-up and ATS, but that is good enough to hold down first place in the watered-down NFC East. They have already made their fair share of mistakes with two blown fourth quarter leads, but they have also been very opportunistic with a turnover ratio of plus nine. When things are clicking this can still be one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

New Orleans is pointed in the right direction following a very shaky 0-3 start with wins in three of its last four games both SU and ATS. This is another team that can put quite a few points on the board when it is on its game and in those three wins the Saints have averaged 28 points. I am looking for both Eli Manning for the Giants and the Saints’ Drew Brees to have a big day through the air to take this game OVER the total line.

San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at St. Louis Rams

San Francisco is a bad team as displayed by its 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) start. It is struggling on offense with just 295.6 total yards and 14.7 points a game, which are both ranked dead last in the NFL and its defense is ranked 31st in yards allowed. That being said, I am not sure the 49ers are bad enough to be getting this many points against a team they have beaten SU in 13 of the last 14 meetings.

The Rams come into this NFC West matchup at 3-3 both SU and ATS and while they have beaten Seattle and Arizona SU after closing as underdogs, I am not all that comfortable in their role as heavy home favorites. This offense is ranked 31st in the NFL in both yards and points per game so I am not sure there is a very big gap between both teams. St. Louis definitely has the edge when it comes to the defensive side of the ball, but things should still remain closer that the current spread in what should be a very low scoring game.

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+3)

In the battle of unbeatens on Sunday night, Green Bay comes into to Mile High well rested at 6-0 SU with a profitable 5-1 record ATS. The Packers are one of the most complete teams in the NFL with an offense that is putting-up 27.3 points a game complementing a defense that is ranked first in points allowed (16.8). Green Bay is 2-0 SU against the AFC West this season, but it failed to cover its last time out in a 27-20 win against San Diego as 10-point home favorites.

Denver is also coming off a bye at 6-0 SU with a 4-1-1 record ATS. Neither of these NFL powers has faced all that many teams with a SU winning record so this will be the first true test for both. Peyton Manning has been showing his age a bit in a slower start than expected, but he is still Peyton Manning. The Broncos’ defense is ranked third in the league in points allowed (17) and it is ranked first against the pass, which helps negate Green Bay’s biggest strength. It all comes down to home field and I am always going to take Denver getting points in its own backyard.

The first six weeks of the 2015 NFL regular season are in the books and after stumbling a bit with my top picks for Football.US over the past two weeks, I fully expect to get back on track in Week 7 after digging deep into all of Sunday’s matchups. The following are my top three NFL picks based on betting odds from BetOnline.

Sunday, Oct. 25

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (UNDER 44.5)

The 3-2 Vikings have been top money makers this season with a 4-1 record against the spread and solid return on the total line with four of five games staying UNDER. I really like the trend on the total line to hold up behind an offense that is only managing 19.2 points a game coupled with a defense that is holding teams to just 16.6 points.

The Lions finally got off the schneid last week following a five-game losing streak to start the season. Even though they managed to put 37 points on the board in that overtime win against Chicago, this offense has also struggled to put points on the board all season long with an average of just 20 a game. Heading into this NFC North showdown, the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings in Detroit and it is staying UNDER again this Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Washington Redskins

Tampa Bay is hardly a threat to catch the front-runners in the NFC South at 2-3 on the year, but coming off a bye, its prospect to even its record with a win this Sunday looks pretty good. If rookie quarterback Jameis Winston can manage the game and avoid any costly turnovers, the Buccaneers should be able to run the ball up and down the field with Doug Martin carrying the load.

The one concern for 2-4 Washington in this game is a run defense that is ranked 23rd in the league in yards allowed. The bigger concern could be an offense that is now ranked 17th in rushing yards per game after getting completely ground to a halt in its last few outings. It will be hard to turn to quarterback Kirk Cousins and a passing offense that is 23rd in yards per game (230.7) to try and fill the void on an offense that is averaging 19.5 points a game. It probably will not be pretty, but I am taking the Bucs and the 3.5 points in this one.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans

Atlanta’s five-game winning streak to start the season came to an end with last Thursday’s 31-21 loss to rival New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite, but it should be a whole other story this Sunday on the road as once again a 3.5-point favorite. The Falcons’ offense has almost been unstoppable behind Julio Jones catching the ball and Devonta Freeman running it.

Tennessee has lost four-straight following an opening day win against Tampa Bay and things appear to be getting worse with each and every setback. Last Sunday, the Titans got pushed around in a 38-10 loss to Miami as 2.5-point favorites at home and they may have to turn to Zach Mettenberger to try and end the skid if rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota cannot go. To me it does not really matter who is under center for Tennessee since it will be next to impossible for this offense to keep pace on the scoreboard with Atlanta in this matchup.

The college football season has been an up and down ride with my top picks for Football.US, but I am riding a perfect 3-0 mark in last Saturday’s picks and my confidence level in this week’s top plays is running high.
The following is a look at week’s top three games along with free picks based on the betting odds from 5Dimes.

Saturday, Oct. 24

Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-15)

Virginia will have a tough road to hoe in this Saturday’s border war given its past trends and current form heading into this ACC clash. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 against the spread in their last six road games and this season they are just 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread in their first six games.

Not only are the Tar Heels riding a SU five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS), they appear to be getting better and better with each passing week. They hammered Wake Forest 50-14 this past Saturday as 17-point home favorites to raise their scoring average on the year to 40 points a game. Couple this with a defense that is ranked 18th in the nation in points allowed (17.3) and it is hard to see Virginia keeping this game closer than 15 points.

Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (-13)

Connecticut’s promising 2-0 start has become a faded memory with just one SU win in its last five games. This past Saturday, the Huskies lost to South Florida 28-20 as one-point home favorites to fall to 1-3 ATS in their last four games. They have remained fairly solid on defense during this slide, but their offense is ranked near the bottom of Division IA in scoring with an average of 19 points a game.

It has been an up and down ride for the 3-3 Bearcats, but they still have one of the more potent passing games in the country this season behind backup quarterback Hayden Moore. He has thrown for 1,280 yards and seven touchdowns in relief of an injured Gunner Kiel. Cincinnati also has the ability to put points on the board with an average of 36 points a game. It is a perfect 5-0 SU against the Huskies at home and look for that streak to continue while covering the 13-point spread.

Florida State Seminoles (-5.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The Seminoles are off to a SU 6-0 start following last week’s 41-21 clubbing of Louisville as 6.5-point home favorites. That was one of my top picks in Week 7 and I am going to ride the hot hand in this game as well. Much has been made of Florida State’s high-powered offense with Everett Golson under center, but its defense is holding opposing teams to just 15.2 points a game.

Georgia Tech was expected to compete for the ACC’s Coastal Division title, but in the midst of a five-game slide both SU and ATS, the Yellow Jackets will struggle just to qualify for a bowl. It would be hard to fault the offense for this unexpected downturn with a rushing attack that is churning-out an average of 285.7 yards and scoring 37 points a game. The problem has been inconsistencies on the other side of the ball. I do not see things changing this Saturday night in another loss both SU and ATS.

Things quickly went south with last week’s top three picks to turn a winning record on the year into a losing one at 5-7, but I remain confident that I can get back on track with this Sunday’s top three plays. I have once again broken down all the matchups on this Sunday’s NFL slate to come up with my top picks for Week 5 of the NFL season using betting odds from BetOnline.

Sunday, Oct. 11

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans

The 2-2 Bills come into this matchup with 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven road games and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Buffalo does now how to put points on the board with an average of 27.5 a game. Tennessee is coming off an early bye week following a 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) and going back over its last 15 games at home it is just 2-12-1 ATS at home.

The Titans have also done a good job putting points on the board, but the concern in this matchup is a defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL in points allowed. Stick with the Bills to cover in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Both of these teams are off to predictable 1-3 SU starts, but I think the upside for the Jaguars right now is a bit higher. Blake Bortles continues to progress at quarterback and Jacksonville’s running game has gotten a boost from rookie TJ Yeldon. Jameis Winston has taken over the reins as Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback, but this rookie has proven to be a work in progress through his first four NFL starts with six touchdown throws against seven interceptions.

The Jaguars have covered ATS in five of their last seven games, while Tampa Bay is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games. I am taking Jacksonville and the points in a very tight matchup.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)

Denver is off to a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) behind the strength of its defense, while the Raiders have battled their way to a 2-2 start both SU and ATS with second-year vet Derek Carr throwing the ball to rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper. This exciting duo has breathed some new life into a franchise that has been starved for a winner for quite a long time now.

The Broncos have dominated this AFC West matchup for the past several seasons, but I am going way out on a limb this week by taking Oakland as my “upset special” with a stunning SU win against their division rivals.

I brought an even 6-6 record into Week 5 with my top college football picks, but with a 1-2 mark in last Saturday’s games I dipped into the red for the year. With the help of 5Dimes’ posted college football betting odds, I am determined to get back in black this Saturday with the following three picks for Football.US.

LSU (-12) at South Carolina

The No. 7 Tigers continue to move up in the rankings with a 4-0 straight-up start that already includes victories against Mississippi State and Auburn in the SEC. LSU has been riding the back of Heisman front runner Leonard Fournette. He has already rushed for 864 yards and 11 touchdowns on 99 carries and you can expect another heavy workload in this Saturday’s game.
South Carolina is 2-3 SU on the year and still looking for its first win this season in conference play following losses to Kentucky, Georgia and Missouri. It also failed to cover against the spread in all three games. The Gamecocks are only averaging 20 points a game behind an offense that is ranked 110th in the country in average passing yards (163.2). They have done a decent job running the ball this season behind quarterback Lorenzo Nunez, but that is not going to get it done against LSU.

Georgia (-3) at Tennessee

The Bulldogs were thoroughly beaten in every phase of the game this past Saturday in a 38-10 loss to Alabama as one-point favorites at home. Georgia may have been a bit overrated all along, but you get the feeling that it is going to take out its frustrations on someone following such a poor performance and the Volunteers just so happen to be next up on the list.
Tennessee finds itself in a very tough position to try and turn its season around after posting losses to Florida and Arkansas in its first two conference games. The Volunteers closed as six-point home favorites against the Razorbacks this past Saturday, but they came up short in a 24-20 loss. This is another team that was probably a bit overrated at first and this will become even more obvious this Saturday against the Bulldogs.

Wisconsin (+1.5) at Nebraska

The Badgers took a big step backwards this past Saturday in pursuit of another Big Ten West Division title with a 10-6 loss to Iowa as five-point home favorites in their conference opener. This Saturday’s game now dials-up the pressure to help keep those dreams alive. The one constant with Wisconsin is a stout defense that is ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed (9.6) led by linebacker Joe Schobert.

Nebraska continues to struggle out of the gate with a 2-3 start both SU and ATS. The Cornhuskers opened play in the Big Ten this past Saturday with a 14-13 loss to Illinois as three-point road favorites. This was a matchup they should have won, but poor clock management and shaky defense down the stretch cost them the game. Look for this loss to linger into this week’s contest as Nebraska loses another game as a favorite.

I ended-up on the wrong end in two of my top three picks for the second week in a row, but I am still above .500 on the year at 5-4. Looking to get back to my winning ways, I have broken down all the matchups on this Sunday’s NFL slate to come up with three of my top plays for Week 4 of the season using NFL betting odds from BetOnline.

Sunday, Oct. 4

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (OVER 46.5)

The Giants are off to a 1-2 start, but the one constant in all three games as been the ability to move the ball downfield and put points on the board. It has been New York’s inability to hold onto fourth quarter leads that has hurt the cause.

Buffalo has had no issue scoring with the third-highest points per game average in the NFL (33.3), but it has suffered some breakdowns on defense as well in its 2-1 start.

The total has gone OVER in two of the first three games for both of these teams and I really like the chance that it goes OVER again in this matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskins

Philadelphia bounced-back from two ugly losses to start the season with a 24-17 win last Sunday against the New York Jets as a three-point road underdog. Led by a new-found running game and special teams, Chip Kelly’s new-look Eagles appear to be poised to take another step forward this week.

After two strong efforts running the ball and playing defense, the Redskins took a big step backwards last week in a 32-21 loss to the New York Giants as three-point road underdogs. The expectation bar for Washington was set pretty low this season and last week’s effort is reason why.

The Eagles have the clear betting edge in this matchup against their NFC East rivals with a straight-up 6-3 record in the last nine meetings and a 4-2 record against the spread. Lay the three points and take Philly to cover.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

It has been hit or miss for the Rams in their 1-2 start, but the one thing that is being very apparent in the early part of this season is an offense that is having some serious issues moving the ball downfield. Through its first three games, St. Louis is ranked last in the NFL in total yards and 28th in scoring.

Arizona could be the most balanced team in the NFL right now with an offense that is ranked first in the NFL in average points scored (42) and third in points allowed (16.3). This has led to a perfect 3-0 start both SU and ATS in which the Cardinals have outscored their opponents by a combined 77 points.

Head-to-head in this NFC West clash, Arizona is 6-2 both SU and ATS in the last eight meetings and given its current form look for this trend to hold true this time around as well.

BYU did not do me any favors as one of last week’s picks in a 31-0 loss to Michigan as a 4.5-point road underdog, but with the right call in my other two games I got back to .500 on the year at 6-6. With the help of 5Dimes’ posted college football betting odds, I have zeroed-in on my top three picks for Football.US for this Saturday’s college football slate.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (-5.5)

The Panthers are coming off a bye following a 2-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. They struggled to get by Youngstown State in their season opener and their last time out on Sept. 19 they lost to Iowa 27-24 as four-point road underdogs. Pittsburgh has had its issues moving the ball through the air behind quarterback Nate Peterman and it is currently ranked 104th in the nation in average passing yards per game.

Virginia Tech fell to 2-2 (SU and ATS) with a stunning 35-28 loss to East Carolina this past Saturday as a 10-point road favorite. The reason I like them in this situation is the way this team has been able to bounce back from a bad loss. The Hokies have a solid running game behind Travon McMillian and quarterback Brenden Motely has thrown for 770 yards and six touchdowns in three games. Take Virginia Tech to once again bounce-back at home to cover the 5.5 points.

Minnesota at Northwestern (-6)

Minnesota survived a major scare this past Saturday in a last-minute 27-24 home victory over Ohio University as a 7.5-point favorite. The Golden Gophers will open play in the Big Ten with a 3-1 SU mark in nonconference play, but they are just 1-3 ATS this year. It also does not help that they are just 8-15 SU in their last 23 road games.

The Wildcats have failed to cover in their last five home games against Minnesota, but this time around is going to be different behind a team that has jumped-out to a 4-0 SU start while going 3-1 ATS. Northwestern has already beaten Stanford and Duke as underdogs and its defense is now ranked third in the nation in points allowed (8.8).

West Virginia (+7) at Oklahoma

The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 in their previous outing, which should be considered a good sign following this past Saturday’s 45-6 victory against Maryland as 17-point home favorites. They are now 3-0 SU on the year with a 2-1 record ATS.

The Sooners are also off to a 3-0 SU start while going 2-1 ATS after beating Tulsa 52-38 as 31.5-point favorites at home on Sept. 19. They come into this Big 12 tilt with a 4-8 record ATS in their last 12 games and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home. There is no doubt that Oklahoma can put some points on the board behind a potent passing game, but its defense has been suspect at times in the early going. Take the Mountaineers to keep this game closer than the seven-point spread.

I followed-up a fast 3-0 start in Week 1 with a 1-2 record in last week’s top NFL picks, but that is the way it goes some times in this game. In an effort to get back to my winning ways I have broken down all the matchups on this Sunday’s NFL slate to come up with this week’s “Top Three Picks” for the games using BetOnline’s NFL betting odds.

Sunday, Sept. 27

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

The Bengals are off to a hot 2-0 start both straight-up and against the spread, while Baltimore has failed to cover in losses to both Denver and Oakland on the road. This might paint the picture for a Cincinnati upset on Sunday, but I am not ready to count the Ravens out of the AFC North title picture just yet.

These teams have a long history against one another and the recent betting trends favor Baltimore’s chances to get back on track this week in an almost must-win situation. At home against Cincinnati, the Ravens have won four of the last five meetings SU and I like their chances to cover the 2.5 points this time around.

Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (OVER 47.5)

The one thing that Pittsburgh has been able to do in its 1-1 start is score points. While the Steelers came up short against New England in a 28-21 Week 1 loss, they ran all over San Francisco last week while scoring 43 points. The addition of running back Le’Veon Bell to the lineup this Sunday should only help the cause.

The fact that St. Louis gave-up 31 points in a win over Seattle and 24 points in last week’s loss to Washington should only help the cause. The total has gone OVER in six of the Rams’ last eight games and I really like my chances that it is going over again this Sunday in the Edwards Jones Dome.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Both of these AFC East rivals come into this division showdown with a 1-1 record both SU and ATS in their first two games. The Bills’ defense looked vulnerable last Sunday in a 40-32 loss to New England, while Miami’s offense has sputtered a bit this year with 17 points against the Redskins in a win and 20 points this past Sunday in a surprising loss to Jacksonville.

This is another head-to-head division matchup where I really like the home team’s chance to come out on top both SU and ATS given the tight 2.5-point spread. The Dolphins hold a 5-2 edge both SU and ATS over Buffalo at home in the last seven meetings so look for that trend to prevail this Sunday as well.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants
Pointspread: New York -4
Total Line: 44

The Washington Redskins and the New York Giants square-off against one another this Thursday night in an early season matchup in the NFC East. The Giants have been opened by 5Dimes as four-point favorites playing in the friendly confines of Met Life Stadium with the total set at 44. Kickoff is set for 8:25 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on both CBS and the NFL Network.

The Redskins bounced back from a tough 17-10 loss to Miami on opening day as four-point home favorites with a solid 24-10 victory against St. Louis as three-point underdogs at home this past Sunday. The total has stayed UNDER 5Dimes’ closing betting odds in both contests.

The one constant in both of these games has been Washington’s ability to move the ball on the ground. It is averaging 171.5 rushing yards a game, which is the highest in the NFL. The duo of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones has led the way with a combined 331 rushing yards. Kick Cousins has also managed the game well at quarterback with a completion percentage of 75.9 percent on 58 passing attempts.

The Giants probably feel like they should be 2-0 right now, but their inability to hold onto leads has put them in an early 0-2 hole. After covering as seven-point road underdogs in a 27-26 loss to Dallas in Week 1, they blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead against Atlanta in a 24-20 loss this past Sunday as two-point favorites at home. The total stayed UNDER the 48.5-point line against the Falcons after going OVER the 52-point line in the last minute loss to Dallas.

You can blame poor clock management at the end of the game for the loss to the Cowboys, but the loss to Atlanta would have to fall squarely on the shoulders of New York’s defense for its inability to stop Matt Ryan from successfully throwing the ball to Julio Jones. Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 485 yards and two scores so far this year, but his team has nothing to show for his efforts in the win column.

When it comes to the recent betting trends in this division matchup, New York has won five of its last six games against the Redskins straight-up and it has a 4-1 edge against the spread in the last five meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in the Giants last five home games against Washington.

I would be tempted to go with another play on the UNDER in this game, but I like the Giants’ chances to get their act together and cover the four points at home better.

I got back to my winning ways last week with the correct call in two of my top three picks for Football.Us. That leaves me leaves me one game below .500 on the year at 4-5. With the help of 5Dimes’ posted college football betting odds, I have zeroed-in on my top three picks for Week 4 that should get put me back in the black this Saturday.

BYU (+4.5) at Michigan

In the first of two upset picks this week, I am riding the Cougars all the way in this one following an impressive stand against UCLA in this past Saturday’s 24-23 loss as 16.5-point road underdogs. BYU is built to play anyone tough, which is something it has already proven in straight-up upsets against both Nebraska and Boise State. I have been impressed with the play of freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum in relief of the injured Taysom Hill.
Michigan is back on track with two solid wins against Oregon State and UNLV following its 24-17 opening day to Utah as a five-point road underdog. While the offense did roll-up 63 points in the two wins with the defense giving-up a combined 14 points, I think the Wolverines are going to have their hands full against the highly motivated Cougars, who are looking to move back up in the national rankings.

Maryland at West Virginia (-17)

The Terrapins are 2-1 both SU and ATS in three games they were favored to win, but they are stepping up in class as road underdogs for Saturday’s matchup. They are averaging 37 points a game, but their defense has also allowed an average of 28.7 points. They fact that this unit gave-up 48 points in a loss to Bowling Green is a major concern.
West Virginia has yet to be tested in lopsided victories against Georgia Southern and Liberty by a combined score of 85-17. While things will not be nearly as easy this Saturday, it is hard seeing Maryland slowing down the Mountaineers’ high-powered offense enough to keep things closer than 17 points.

Tennessee (+2) at Florida

The Volunteers started this season with high expectations and through their first three games they are 2-1 both SU and ATS. The main thing I like about Tennessee has been its ability to move the ball on the ground with an average of 246 rushing yards a game. The one-two combination of Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara has already rushed for close to 500 yards.
Florida is also off to a solid start at 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), but it did struggle on offense this past Saturday in a tight 14-9 victory over Kentucky as a 3.5-point road favorite. The Gators have dominated this series over the past decade or so, but last year’s close call on the road against Tennessee in a one-point win should help pave the way for a SU win by the Volunteers this time around.